Boosted by its performance within the Gujarat Assemblyelection in December and victory within the Rajasthan bye-polls this month, the Congress originates to think that Narendra Modi’s days as pm are numbered even when his Bharatiya Janata Party maintains power in 2019. The logic runs thus: the BJP will forfeit its majority within the next general election, meaning its allies can get to determine the best choice – and they’ll prefer anybody but Modi.

You can be certain Modi won’t obtain a second term as pm,” claimed a senior Congress leader. “The next government is going to be created with a Congress-brought alliance or perhaps a BJP-headed alliance under another leader

Another top leader contended the Congress’s “tough challenge” towards the BJP within the prime minister’s home condition of Gujarat has shown that Modi isn’t invincible. Furthermore, Congress leaders believe anti-incumbency is booming from the BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Haryana which, they stated, is going to be reflected in the reduced strength within the Lok Sabha. The BJP had scored heavily during these states within the last election mainly due to the unpopularity from the Congress-brought U . s . Progressive Alliance government and Modi’s personal charisma. Consequently, the Congress, was reduced to some paltry 44 seats within last Lok Sabha election 2019.

Nevertheless its recent performance provides a significantly-need boost towards the Congress whose leaders think that the party’s fortunes are searching up. “We will get a minimum of 60-80 more seats within the Lok Sabha within the 2019 election,” remarked a senior Congress leader.

The Congress can also be feeling upbeat because the BJP’s strength within the Lok Sabha has fallen from 282 to 273 after losing a number of bye-elections in recent several weeks. Case yet another compared to half-way mark within the 545-member house. The Congress’s tally, however, went as much as 48, and also the party is sensing better results within the approaching bye- elections to seven more Lok Sabha seats – Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Anantnag, Araria, Palghar, Bhandara-Gondia and Kairana. “These elections is going to be another test for that BJP,” stated a Congress leader. “The results can have the level of disillusionment from the Modi government.”

The current show of muscle-flexing through the BJP’s allies, Congress leaders believe, is yet another indication the saffron party’s ratings are sliding. The Shiv Sena has declared it won’t ally using the BJP within the next general election, the Telugu Desam Party is threatening to leave the ruling National Democratic Alliance since the Modi government’s guaranteed financial package for Andhra Pradesh hasn’t materialised, and also the Shiromani Akali Dal has counselled the BJP to deal with its partners better. While all of this is possibly put lower to posturing prior to the next election, the Congress sees it as being an indication of the BJP’s diminishing dominance.

Tough task

Simultaneously, Congress leaders’ confidence in regards to a possible comeback is tempered through the realisation that Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah will set up a stiff fight out of the box their wont. Indeed, a piece within the party continues to be counseling its more youthful leaders to stay alert as Modi can “pull out a rabbit from his hat” within the run-to the next election. “I don’t think we ought to underestimate Modi,” stated a Congress leader who’s convinced the pm can make dramatic moves to alter the general public mood within the BJP’s favour prior to the election. “We will not be surprised if Modi decides to visit war with Pakistan to deflect attention from his unsuccessful economic policies.”

On its part, the BJP understands that it may be losing its sheen. The party is thus working overtime to win the approaching Karnataka Set up election to be able to shore up its credentials and distribute a note that it’s still greatly within the driver’s seat. Though BJP leaders independently admit that they’re kept in a difficult contest using the Congress within the southern condition, they maintain their “superior organisational skills” might find them through. Winning Karnataka won’t increase the tally of BJP-ruled states, it will help silence its recently assertive allies in addition to critics of Modi and Shah inside the party who’ve been feeling emboldened to talk up simply because they believe the BJP is on shaky ground.

While insisting that there’s a perceptible alternation in the general public mood from the BJP, senior Congress leaders explain they cannot relax and wait for a BJP to crash or rely on the saffron party’s allies to pressure it to select another leader. Modi and Shah’s grip within the BJP is simply too firm. “We possess a lengthy approach to take and also have to operate very difficult before we are able to consider dethroning Modi,” stated a senior Congress leader.

For this finish, the senior leader stated, the Congress must strengthen its grassroots organisation and finish factional feuds in the condition units. The party must unveil a guide for reviving the economy, tackling the agrarian crisis and generating jobs. It must also stitch up alliances well in front of the election, the senior leader stated, since it doesn’t possess the wherewithal to defend myself against the BJP’s electoral machine by itself, particularly in big states for example Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.